As of July 1, 2022, we are still in pandemic mode, since March 11, 2020, when WHO declared the pandemic. COVID-19 has shown no signs of abating, as it comes in surges. Epidemiologists are trying to determine if there is any seasonality to the surges, although it looks like it is too soon to tell. We are in an Omicron sub-variant surge right now with several BA.2 sub-variants and BA.4 and BA.5 are rising, which may cause a surge in the fall.

July 1, 2022 - How do key COVID-19 metrics compare to previous waves?

Graphic source: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/us-covid-cases-hospital-icu-deaths?country=~USA

The way I see it, unless new cases consistently drop over time, we are not in control. While fewer people are dying or being hospitalized, this does not mean the virus is dying out. An explanation for fewer deaths and hospitalizations is there are more people vaccinated now than a year ago. However, there is still not enough people who are fully protected to prevent the virus from finding a home in unprotected or unvaccinated people. And, as long as the virus can infect someone, it will replicate and mutate, which is exactly what it is doing quite proficiently.

Although most of the preventive practices have fallen apart because various entities have decided to drop the mandates either through declaring they are no longer necessary, or by default by not enforcing such measures as masking, social distancing, requiring proof of testing negative or proof of vaccinations. According to a June 10, 2022 US News and World Report article, 2/3s of Americans should be wearing masks because of high community spread. (https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2022-06-10/cdc-67-of-americans-should-be-wearing-masks-indoors-or-considering-it)

Those who continue to suffer are the millions who are immunocomromised with pre-existing conditions for which there is no cure, thus, leaving these people vulnerable to infection, hospitalization and death. Researchers have found that infected immunocomprised people are ideal for COVID-19 mutations.

Data sources for COVID-19 metrics have fallen apart from entities not consistently reporting on new cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The CDC recommendation to check community spread to determine just how safe it is to go without preventive measures is laughable when the data are incomplete, underreported, or not reported all. No one is sure how many tests are being done as the use of home-testing is not tracked in any consistent manner. The most current map provided shows that only 2.17% of the U.S. has low transmission, yet not everyone is masked or social distancing. People are out socializing in crowded indoor venues.

June 25, 2022

Graphic source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=Risk

The emphasis on the use of wastewater surveillance methods is promising, but the data collected are not appropriately analyzed to yield actionable findings. The CDC's Web site (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#wastewater-surveillance) provides a map plotting wastewater data sources, a recently added wastewater metric chart and a list of the results from these sources. None really useful for the average citizen to use to determine how bad COVID-19 is spreading in a particular community.

However, CDC selected Biobot Analytics to "Expand National Wastewater Monitoring" in May 2022, and the data presentations on The Biobot Network of Wastewater Treatment Plants have been very useful (https://biobot.io/press-release/u-s-centers-for-disease-control-and-prevention-selects-biobot-analytics-to-expand-national-wastewater-monitoring/), judging by the number of likes my tweets of these data have been, which show how regional analyses can really help communities see if they have high community spread, and if they are worse off than other communities.

June 25, 2022

Source: https://biobot.io/data/

U.S. vaccination rates have been dismal, and how these data are reported can be deceptive. For example, citing statistics for "at least one shot" may yield the highest percentage possible, but is meaningless in terms of assessing the impact of vaccination against COVID-19, as one shot IS NOT PROTECTIVE against COVID-19.

Furthermore, with the rise of numerous subvariants, boosters have become necessary. Although at this point it is not clear how many boosters will be needed, the frequency of boosters, and for whom. Thus, another misnomer that confuses the proper presentation of vaccination rates is referring to the original two-shot series (for PFizer and Moderna) or one shot (Johnson & Johnson) as "Fully vaccinated." Though it may be true, at the time, that the hope would be getting these initial shots would do the trick, it has turned out not to be case. Now, some have referred to the original vaccinations as the primary series, although no entity has bothered to clarify this to the public and the CDC still presents data for the two-series or one-shot J&J as "Fully vaccinated."

As of June 26, 2022, CDC still reports "At least one dose" (78.1%), "Fully Vaccinated" (66.9%), "First Booster Dose" (67.1%), "Second Booster Dose" for Population ≥ 50 Years of Age (26.1%), and for Population ≥ 65 Years of Age (32.7%). In the end, the percentage of the US population that can be considered fully protected is between 26.1% and 32.7%, or the number of people who actually got all the shots they were supposed to get, once the vaccine doses became available. Given how low the percentage is for the fully protected, vaccinations have been shown to reduce hospitalizations and mortality. One can only wonder how much better things could be if more people get fully vaccinated, and thus become fully protected.

June 24, 2022

Part of the problem for these low rates had to do when the Supreme Court ruled in January 2022 that large companies with many employees cannot mandate the vaccinations of their workers. It basically overstepped as the federal government already has an oversight agency to deal with the health and safety of workers, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). As a result of this decision, ALL people working for large companies were at risk for getting infected in the workplace. Terrible decision that it should not have made. (https://law.stanford.edu/2022/01/20/a-look-at-the-supreme-court-ruling-on-vaccination-mandates/)

The nomenclature imposed by the World Health Organization to identify COVID-19 variants and subvariants have not been useful and confusing. WHO dropping two Greek letters for unexplained reasons (some have alluded to political correctness) made little scientific sense.

Graphic source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/2/omicron-sub-variant-found-in-57-countries-says-who

The use of Greek letters to name variants has not been specific enough to deal with the numerous subvariants that have emerged with the Omicron variant. Currently, the world has been dealing with a number of subvariants. According to GISAID's genomic sequencing, the number of Omicron subvariants continue to grow, but are all referred to as Omicron even though all have distinguishing characteristics and differ in how transmissible they are and how different groups of people respond differently to the sub-variants.

June 21, 2022

Source: GISAID

We still don't know who Patient Zero is. China has not been cooperative with WHO investigations. The predominately theory is still animal spillover at a wet market, but still no definitive animal has been identified. Unless something definitive comes up, the only "sure" explanation right now is the report that the pandemic started on November 17, 2019 and a 55 year old (no gender given) Hubei resident may be the index case.

The death toll from COVID-19 for the U.S. reached one million in early May 2022, approximately May 5, 2022, or so. The U.S., has the highest number of COVID-19 deaths in the world.

May 5, 2022